To Procrastinate or Not to Procrastinate: A Retrospective Study of the Optimal Timing of Containing the Global Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic

As global public health is under threat by the 2019-nCoV and a potential new wave of large-scale epidemic outbreak spread looming, an imminent question to ask what optimal strategy prevention control (P&C) measures would be, especially in terms timing enforcing aggressive policy response so as maximize efficacy contain pandemic spread. Based on current statistic data, here we developed logistic probability function configured SEIR model analyse COVID-19 estimate its transmission pattern different “anticipate- or delay-to-activate” scenarios containing pandemic. We found that positive effects stringent P&C be almost canceled out case significantly delayed action, whereas partially procrastinatory wait-and-see may still able contribute degree although effectiveness compromised compared scenario early intervention coupled with measures. A laissez-faire adopted government authority tackling uncertainly COVID19-type development during stage turns high risk from perspective, significant damages produced consequence.